AMSCI Newsletter July-August 2025

July - August 2025 Market Update

The Wharton School apparently does not teach the axiom, Don’t shoot the messenger.

After the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Aug. 1 announced that the economy created only 73,000 jobs in July and that the agency was revising downward its job growth estimates for May and June by a total of 258,000, President Trump fired the bureau’s commissioner, Erika McEntarfer.

Trump charged in a social media post that the bureau’s statistics “were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.”

Several former leaders of the bureau criticized the move, with one past commissioner, William Beach, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, saying the president is “making a claim that is just not possible” and that the firing “sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the bureau.”

In its announcement, the bureau acknowledged that the “revisions for May and June were larger than normal” and noted that “Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.”

The unemployment rate in July was 4.2 percent, up a tenth of a point from June.

Trump was presumably more pleased with the July 30 report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that calculated growth in the second quarter to be 3 percent. In Q1, the economy contracted by 0.5 percent.

“Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment,” the bureau stated.

Inflation, meanwhile, also increased, with June’s consumer price index (CPI) showing a 0.3 percent rise in prices from May and a 2.7 percent jump from June of last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year-over-year rate was up from 2.4 percent in May.

With the economy showing solid growth and inflation still elevated, the Federal Reserve again decided against an interest rate cut at its July 29-30 meeting.

While stating that, “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated,” the central bank kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, where it has been since December 2024. Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee, both of whom were appointed by Trump during his first term, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, dissented, arguing that the Fed should have reduced rates by 0.25 points.

Waller said that “the wait-and-see approach is overly cautious and, in my opinion, does not properly balance the risks to the outlook and could lead to policy falling behind the curve,” while Bowman downplayed data showing inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target: “With tariff-related price increases likely representing a one-time effect, it is appropriate to look through temporarily elevated inflation readings.”

Tariffs largely remain an area of uncertainty. The United States and the European Union announced a preliminary trade deal on July 27 that would set tariffs at 15 percent, though Trump later threatened to push them to 35 percent if Europe does not fulfill its commitments to invest $600 billion in the United States.

On July 31, Trump issued an order imposing “reciprocal” tariffs on many countries on Aug. 7. Reciprocal tariffs were originally announced on April 2 and have been postponed several times since then. By CNBC’s count, the United States has reached agreement on eight trade deals, including the one with the E.U., during the past four months.

As for America’s two biggest trading partners (not including the multi-nation E.U.), Trump extended the deadline to complete a trade deal with Mexico by 90 days, but he has not granted Canada a similar extension, leaving them subject to steep levies at the end of the first week of August.

While the overall economy has shown resilience, certain sectors appear to be feeling the brunt of tariffs. Multiple respondents to the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index survey pointed to increases in the cost of raw materials and uncertainty related to exactly when, where and how tariffs will be implemented.

“These tariff wars are beginning to wear us out,” a representative of the apparel, leather and allied products sector said, for example. “It’s been very difficult to forecast what we will pay in duties and calculate any cost savings we’ve had this year. Also, tariffs have disrupted our customs import bond. There is zero clarity about the future, and it’s been a difficult few months trying to figure out where everything is going to land and the impact on our business. So far, tremendous and unexpected costs have been incurred.”

The index declined during the month and has been at levels indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector for the past five months and 10 of the past 12 months.

Consumer confidence increased slightly in July, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, although the group’s senior economist noted that the index “remains below last year’s heady levels.”

“Consumers’ write-in responses showed that tariffs remained top of mind and were mostly associated with concerns that they would lead to higher prices,” the senior economist said. “In addition, references to high prices and inflation rose in July.”

The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers also inched up in July, but it was still 7 percent below the July 2024 level.

“Although recent trends show sentiment moving in a favorable direction, sentiment remains broadly negative,” the surveys’ director said. “Consumers are hardly optimistic about the trajectory of the economy, even as their worries have softened since April 2025.”

Housing starts increased by 4.6 percent from May to June, but were largely unchanged from a year earlier, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Existing home sales dipped by 2.7 percent from May to June, the National Association of Realtors reported.

“Home construction continues to lag population growth,” the association’s chief economist said. “This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market. More supply is needed to increase the share of first-time homebuyers in the coming years, even though some markets appear to have a temporary oversupply at the moment.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,193.12 on Aug. 6, up 1.6 percent since Trump was sworn into office on Jan. 20. The S&P 500 Index ended the day at 6,345.06, marking a 5.8 percent increase since the inauguration.

The dollar on Aug. 6 was trading at 0.86 euros, 0.75 pounds, 147.5 yen and 7.18 yuan.

July - August 2025 Steel Shorts

Trump Announces 50% Tariff on Copper

copper and derivative products.

Trump stated in the proclamation that the tariffs are being implemented because “copper is being imported into the United States in quantities and under circumstances that threaten to impair the national security of the United States.”

“In my judgment, the action in this proclamation will, among other things, help increase domestic production of semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products, thereby reducing our Nation’s reliance on foreign sources,” Trump stated in the proclamation. “It will ensure that domestic fabricators are able to supply sufficient quantities of copper products essential for infrastructure, defense systems, and advanced manufacturing. This action will also promote investment, employment, and innovation in the domestic copper fabrication sector, strengthen supply chains, enhance industrial resilience, and generate meaningful economic benefits.”

The copper tariffs match the 50 percent duties on steel and aluminum imports that the Trump administration imposed this year. All of the metals tariffs were implemented under the authority of Section 232.

U.S.-E.U. Trade Deal Does Not Yet Cover Steel, Aluminum

The preliminary trade deal that the United States and the European Union announced on July 27 does not cover steel and aluminum imports. But that could change.

The deal sets a tariff rate of 15 percent on most European goods, but it leaves steel and aluminum tariffs at 50 percent, as Trump imposed under Section 232.

The two sides, however, reportedly are continuing to negotiate a tariff-rate quota system.

“The system would set lower tariffs on metal products sent to the United States up to the current volume of annual exports,” The New York Times reported on July 29. “Only steel and aluminum in excess of those historical amounts would face higher tariff rates.”

Price of Domestically Produced Steel Increases Following Tariffs

American steel producers are reportedly raising their prices following the implementation of 50 percent tariffs on imports of the metal.

The New York Times noted on July 22 that “Two big American producers, Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics, reported on Monday [July 21] that they had charged more for their products in the second quarter of this year than they did in the first quarter.”

“You always see that as one of the traps of a tariff,” the Times quoted Daimler Truck North America CEO John O’Leary as saying. American steel makers, he added, now have “more headroom to be able to raise the price.”

Cleveland-Cliffs’ CEO Lourenco Goncalves countered that the tariffs are necessary because foreign steel producers often are subsidized and pay their workers much lower wages than employees in the United States earn.

Canada Restricts Steel Imports

Canada in July imposed tight new limits on imports of steel from countries other than the United States and Mexico.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that the restrictions are necessary because of the country’s reliance on foreign steel, which accounts for about two-thirds of its consumption, and because of the threat of other countries trying to sell more steel in Canada to compensate for tariff-related reductions in the United States.

“We must diversify our trade relationships, and above all we must rely more on Canadian steel for Canadian projects,” Carney said. “Those shifts start today.”

Steel imports from countries without a free trade agreement with Canada will face caps of half of 2024 imports, with a 50 percent tariff applying beyond that amount. Steel imports from the United States and Mexico will be limited to 100 percent of the 2024 volume, after which they will also face 50 percent tariffs.

Additionally, Canada is imposing tariffs on steel that is melted and poured in China.

Concerns have been raised that the measures will result in steel shortages.

British Columbia Minister of Jobs and Economic Growth Ravi Kahlon said, “We are having conversations with the federal government just to say, ‘We understand where you want to go. We understand why. But there [have] to be ways for us to get there without hurting ourselves along the way.’”

Port of Antwerp Bruges

Port of Antwerp-Bruges: a soft spot for transporting steel

Port of Antwerp-Bruges is the largest breakbulk port for steel in Europe. The port offers an unparalleled combination of accessibility, advanced infrastructure and years of expertise. The specialist companies handle each cargo of steel with the greatest care and efficiency. 

A wide range of steel products

Port of Antwerp-Bruges processes a wide range of steel products, from coils and sheets to plates, bars, tubes and pipes.

In 2024, companies in the port handled 8,048,014 tons of metal products, which equates to as much as 80 % of the total tonnage of breakbulk handled by the port (excluding RoRo). Container transport for steel is not included in that figure. The figures are not known to the port authority.

Most of our steel shipments are exported to the United States of America, ca 15%, with coils as most important products.

How is steel transported?

Steel is primarily transported as breakbulk, but it also finds its way into containers. In Antwerp or Bruges, cargo owners can pick the shipping method of their choice, based on the infrastructure available at the receiving ports.

Current market conditions are also affecting the shipping method choice. When there are shortages of containers or disruptions in the supply chain, cargo often shifts to breakbulk vessels. In Port of Antwerp-Bruges, this switch is easily done which offers great flexibility.

Service providers with expertise

Port of Antwerp-Bruges has a network of freight forwarders and shipping agents who are specialists in transporting steel. They take care of everything from A to Z, including the shipping paperwork and complex customs formalities. In addition, surveyors carry out quality checks and investigate claims for insurers if necessary.

Terminal operators at the port unload the steel products from the ship, store them, and process or handle the steel. The advantage of the All Weather Terminal such as the one belonging to Wijngaard Natie is that inland navigation and short sea vessels (up to 10,000 dwt) can have their cargo unloaded and handled in dry conditions, regardless of the weather.

“Thanks to the All Weather Terminal, we can handle weather-sensitive cargo under cover at all times. And this for every means of transport, from trucks over rail to short sea ships.” Wendy Van Beirendonck, Sales at Wijngaard Natie

Added value in the port

Port of Antwerp-Bruges offers a wide range of services such as weighing and labelling steel or packing and unpacking containers. What is more, our steel service centres offer semi-industrial services such as cutting, coating and shot-blasting. The port is therefore a one-stop shop that provides a full range of services. Zuidnatie recently invested 13,5 million Euro into a brand new steel service center, where coils of up to 32 tonnes are discharged directly from sea vessels and processed into finished products on the port terminal. By handling the entire process – from unloading to slitting – on a single terminal, Zuidnatie minimizes steel transport, significantly reducing CO₂ emissions.

“The slitting centers are a great example of added value. After transshipment at Zuidnatie, the coils are cut into smaller pieces at the same terminal, so we can offer our customers a total package at one location.” Tore Odegarden, Plant Manager at Knauf Ceiling Solutions

A unique range of overseas connections

As it offers all main container lines ánd the largest range of breakbulk connections in Europe, Port of Antwerp-Bruges is the ideal place to go when sending steel around the world. The port offers regular maritime connections to all parts of the world, making things even more convenient for shippers. In fact, you never need to wait long for the next sailing to your chosen destination.

The port’s strategic location ensures easy access to key markets such as Germany, France and the United Kingdom. In addition, all steel terminals have trimodal access to rail and road transportation and inland navigation systems, thereby improving the efficiency and speed of your logistics operations.

The central location in Western Europe, the expertise of the dockworkers and an excellent rail connection make Antwerp our main hub to the US and Canada.

John Michielssen,Head of Falline and Cargo Operations at Fednav

Regulations and standards

The handling and storage of steel is subject to strict regulations and international standards known as the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). This is a system of levies on imports of high-carbon products, such as steel, cement, fertiliser or electricity, for example. By means of this system, the EU wants to ensure that European industry has a level playing field with regard to all goods imported to Europe. On the other hand, Europe also imposes import quotas that can cause fluctuations in volumes.

CUSTOMS CORNER

Trump Issues Section 232 Copper Proclamation, CBP Provides Tariff Guidance

President Trump issued a Proclamation on July 30, 2025 establishing 50% tariffs under Section 232 on all imports of semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products, as specified in the Proclamation Annex, effective on imports made on and after 12:01 am EDT on August 1, 2025. There is also provision for possible tariffs beginning in 2027 on refined copper imports, and there are instructions to the Secretary of Commerce to establish under the Defense Production Act a domestic sales requirement for copper input materials starting at 25 percent in 2027, a domestic sales requirement of 25 percent for high-quality copper scrap, and export controls for high-quality copper scrap.  

The 50% tariff rate was imposed despite the Secretary of Commerce’s recommendation for a 30% rate. The copper tariff will apply to the copper content of all covered articles, with the non-copper content being subject to the applicable reciprocal tariff. The copper tariff will “stack” with all other applicable tariffs, with the exception of the Section 232 tariff on autos and auto parts. Products covered by the auto/auto parts Section 232 duties will pay the applicable duties under that Proclamation, and not the duties under the copper Proclamation.

The Secretary of Commerce is directed to establish within 90 days a process for including additional derivative copper articles within the scope of the copper Proclamation, consistent with the similar processes under the steel and aluminum Section 232 remedies. The Proclamation further provides that “CBP shall issue authoritative guidance mandating strict compliance with declaration requirements for copper content in imported articles and outlining maximum penalties for noncompliance”.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/adjusting-imports-of-copper-into-the-united-states/

U. S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has issued official Guidance regarding implementation of the copper tariffs in CSMS # 65794272. The Guidance sets forth the HTSUS Chapter 99 tariff numbers that will be applicable for all covered imports. It also has the list of covered products as an attachment. The Guidance includes the usual provisions on Section 232 goods imported into Foreign Trade Zones, requiring privileged foreign status; and indicating that no drawback shall be available for duties paid under the copper Proclamation.

Where Section 232 duties are paid on copper or copper content, those amounts are not subject to the IEEPA reciprocal tariff.

Copper content reporting requirements are set forth, with two separate lines required for copper and non-copper values. Unknown values require reporting 100% as copper value. Importers are required to maintain sufficient documents to support copper and non-copper value amounts.

CBP has included the language from the Proclamation regarding “severe consequences, such as significant monetary penalties, loss of import privileges, and criminal liability, consistent with United States law” for underreporting on reported values.

https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-3ebf0e0?wgt_ref=USDHSCBP_WIDGET_2

CBP Issues Guidance on Reciprocal Tariffs Effective August 7, 2025

Reciprocal Tariffs

U. S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has issued Guidance on the revised reciprocal tariffs announced on July 31, 2025 and effective August 7, 2025. This provides for new HTSUS Chapter 99 provisions and tariff rates for 70 countries plus all of the countries of the European Union.

The new provisions are effective at 12:01 a. m. EDT on August 7, 2025.  A delayed effective date is established for goods in transit, meaning loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transport prior to entry into the United States before 12:01 a.m. EDT on August 7, 2025, AND (2) entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. EDT on August 7, 2025, and before 12:01 a.m. EDT on October 5, 2025. Such goods remain subject to the 10% ad valorem reciprocal tariff under heading 9903.01.25.

Exemptions apply for goods of Canada and Mexico (both subject to duties under other IEEPA provisions), although a special Chapter 99 number is required to claim the exemption. Other exemptions include articles subject to Column 2 duty rates, certain donations, informational materials, and articles previously excluded under prior reciprocal tariff notices.

Articles actually paying duties under Section 232 (steel, aluminum, copper, and their derivatives; autos and light trucks and parts) are exempt, although any portion of such products that is excluded from Section 232 will be subject to the appropriate reciprocal tariff.

Articles in which at least 20% of the value is U. S. originating are exempt from the reciprocal tariff on the U. S. value, although the remaining value of the article is subject to the reciprocal tariff. Strict reporting requirements apply.

Most articles making a proper claim for classification in a Chapter 98 provision are exempt, except for articles subject to the African Growth and Opportunity Act and the Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act, as well as articles classified in subheadings 9802.00.40, 9802.00.50, and 9802.00.60, and 9802.00.80.

Entries filed under Temporary Import Bond provisions must report the appropriate reciprocal tariff number and bond for that amount.

A special rule is provided for articles from the European Union. Such articles having a Column 1 duty rate less than 15% are subject to a 15% reciprocal duty calculated so that the sum of the Column 1/General duty rate and the reciprocal tariff shall be 15 percent. Articles having a Column 1 duty rate 15% or more will be subject only to that rate, with a reciprocal tariff rate of 0%. For articles from all other countries, the reciprocal tariff is cumulative with any applicable Column 1 duty rate. A special additional transshipment duty rate of 40% is established for any goods transshipped to evade applicable IEEPA Reciprocal duties. Any other applicable or appropriate fine or penalty, and any other duties, fees, taxes, extractions, or charges applicable to goods of the country of origin, may also be charged.

Goods of China, including Hong Kong and Macau, continue to be subject to the 10% reciprocal tariff under heading 9903.01.25 and not covered by this Guidance.

The Guidance includes instructions on the proper sequence for claiming and reporting all applicable HTSUS provisions.

The applicable tariff provisions and duty rates are set forth in Annex 1 and Annex 2 of the July 31 Executive Order.

https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-3ec7b5e?wgt_ref=USDHSCBP_WIDGET_2

CBP Issues Guidance on Separate Brazil Tariff Effective August 6, 2025

Brazil Tariffs

Brazil is subject to a 10% reciprocal tariff under the Guidance above. In a separate Guidance, CBP provides information on the separate 40% tariff on Brazil (the ”Bolsonaro tariff”,) cumulative with the reciprocal tariff, effective August 6, 2025. Exemptions similar to those set forth above, although not always identical, apply for goods in transit, for certain donations and informational materials, for articles excluded under prior notices, for certain goods subject to Chapter 98, and for products paying Section 232 duties. An additional exemption for certain civil aircraft articles is provided.

Articles covered by the 40% tariff entered into a Foreign Trade Zone must be entered as “privileged foreign status.” Drawback is available for these duties. Instructions on HTSUS sequencing for entry purposes is included.

https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-3ec2577?wgt_ref=USDHSCBP_WIDGET_2

Steven W. Baker
AMSCI Customs Committee Chair
swbaker@swbakerlaw.com

Upcoming AMSCI Events – Save the Dates!
AMSCI 74th Annual Dinner

Date: Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Time: 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Cocktail Networking Reception (Cambridge Room)

          7:00 PM – 9:00 PM | Dinner (Harvard Hall)
Location: The Harvard Club of NYC
Formal dinner and networking in a historic New York venue.

🎄 AMSCI Annual Gulf Region Christmas Dinner

Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
Time: 5:00 PM – 9:00 PM
Location: Aspen Ballroom, The Houstonian Hotel, Club & Spa | Houston, TX
 Celebrate the season with industry peers in a festive setting.
 RSVP HERE