With tariff implementation, plans and delays roiling the economy, federal program cancellations and worker firings reshaping the government, and reversals in foreign policy disrupting the global order, President Trump has produced the most impactful initial weeks of an administration in recent memory.

On March 4, Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada – the United States’ largest trading partner – and Mexico, and 10 percent tariffs on goods from China, though the following day, he lifted the Canada and Mexico tariffs for a month. (This repeated a pattern from early February.) Shortly thereafter, he went on to threaten even harsher tariffs on Canada. Tariffs of 25 percent on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries went into effect on March 12 – a threat to double the tariffs to 50 percent on Canadian metals was dropped – and “reciprocal tariffs” are set to go into effect on April 2. Retaliatory tariffs from certain countries – most notably Canada and China – have already been announced or threatened.

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has cut thousands of government workers – though some have been rehired – and billions of dollars in government programs, though critics charge that it has done so in an overly blunt manner that might not actually increase efficiency – such as by firing probationary employees (who have few legal protections) rather than looking for under-performers. Trump announced on March 6 that department heads would be taking over job cuts and said, “They can be very precise as to who will remain and who will go. We say the ‘scalpel’ rather than the ‘hatchet.’”

In foreign affairs, Trump, for a few days in March, temporarily cut off military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, leaving many – including European officials – to wonder if the United States is positioning itself as a de facto ally of Russia.

Such dramatic changes in even a single area by the world’s most powerful country would be de-stabilizing, but Trump’s attempt to remake all of government and America’s place in the world has resulted in dozens of lawsuits, dips in the stock markets, fears from traditional allies, and talk of possible recession, increased inflation, or even – in a throwback to the late 1970s – stagflation.

Some economists warn that reductions in government payrolls and government spending – combined with mass deportation of undocumented workers – could slow if not reverse economic growth, while tariffs drive up prices.

“It’s a death by a thousand paper cuts,” the chief economist for Wells Fargo said to The New York Times. “All these things individually aren’t enough to cause a recession, but if you layer them on top of one another, it might be.”

The chief global economist at the investment bank Piper Sandler, meanwhile, told the Times that the uncertainty created by policies that are threatened, announced, reversed and re-threatened can have a “deer in the headlights” effect: “Things just stop. Business confidence is muted, employment is muted, and capital spending is put on hold.”

Trump, himself, has acknowledged that there could be some difficulties, telling Congress in his March 4 address, “There will be a little disturbance, but we’re okay with that. It won’t be much.”

Five days later, in an interview on Fox News, Trump, when asked if he is expecting a recession this year, declined to rule it out.

“I hate to predict things like that,” Trump said. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing, and … it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent similarly said on CNBC that the United States had “become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period.”

“Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure,” Bessent said. “And look, there’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending.”

Americans appear to be starting to feel the “adjustment,” as The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index in February experienced its largest monthly decline in three and a half years.

“This is the third consecutive month-on-month decline, bringing the index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022,” the board’s senior economist for global indicators said, adding, “Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.”

The economy added 151,000 jobs in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, somewhat below expectations. The bureau, using data collected during the first few weeks of the Trump administration, noted that, “Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined” by 10,000 positions.

In contrast to consumer attitudes, The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence, which is produced in collaboration with The Business Council, increased in February to its highest level in three years, “indicating that CEOs have shifted from the cautious optimism that prevailed in 2024 to a more confident optimism.”

“Consistent with an improved expected outlook, there was a notable increase in the share of CEOs expecting to increase investment plans and a decline in the share expecting to downsize investment plans,” the board’s senior economist for global indicators said.

The Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management declined slightly in February following two months of increases, with the chair of the institute’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee noting the impact of trade policy on the manufacturing sector.

“Demand eased, production stabilized, and destaffing continued as panelists’ companies experience the first operational shock of the new administration’s tariff policy,” the chair said. “Price growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery stoppages and manufacturing inventory impacts. Although tariffs do not go into force until mid-March, spot commodity prices have already risen about 20 percent.”

Housing starts fell nearly 10 percent from December to January but were largely unchanged from January 2024, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Existing home sales increased 4.2 percent from January to February, the National Association of Realtors reported.

“Home buyers are slowly entering the market,” the association’s chief economist said. “Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as of March 21, was down 4.6 percent since Jan. 21, the day after Trump’s inauguration, while the S&P 500 Index had dipped 6.3 percent.

The Federal Reserve, at its March 18-19 meeting, kept the target range for the Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5 percent, while noting that “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”